Why we're not heading for a 'no-deal' Brexit - the Brits will cave in and then claim the EU 'blinked'

 I'm a student of the 'new normal' in politics - that's the post so-called populist revolution new normal - which means that the UK will do much the same in January with a last gasp concession to EU demands. In that case the substance was that there should be no border in Ireland. 

Now I know we're all walking around in a sea of belief that somehow the 'EU blinked' in January - although what it blinked on I'm not sure, except that saying so saved face for the UK Government. See the discussion by the Institute for Government. The Irish/EU position had always been 'no border in Ireland' and that is precisely what they are getting. All this stuff about how the EU blinked on the backstop or something doesn't really wash since the backstop was a creation of the May regime to try to finesse away the objections of the DUP. In the end the DUP's objections were brushed aside to allow Ireland, backed by the EU, to avoid a border in Ireland, even if there is a border in the Irish Sea. 

Of course, and getting to the present, a key reason why a 'no-deal' Brexit is to be avoided is that if there is a no-deal then the Irish Sea border will become a lot harder than it otherwise would be, exacerbating problems, and also, into the bargain, increasing the possibilities for a United Ireland. Shift focus to Scotland, and the chances of Scottish independence happening in the next few years increase from the quite likely to the near-certain. I suspect that in the event of a 'no-deal' there would actually be some minimum agreements to avoid the worst aspects of trade chaos and to keep the planes flying (not that too many of those are flying these days). But the economic effects would certainly be severely noticed when the 'no-deal' came into effect (I wouldn't entirely rule out some sort of extension either).

In political terms the obvious move for the British Government is to give the EU essentially what they want and simultaneously negotiate some face saving measure for the British Government (eg political institutions get new creative labels). This will enable the British Government to announce that the 'EU blinked'. The tabloids can announce a great British victory, and then carrying on decrying the BBC for not letting them sing 'Rule Britainnia' to celebrate this interpretation.

What does the EU want? Well, they want to know that British environmental and labour standards will remain complementary to EU ones and they want the UK to obey state aid rules. Of course a key objection from (some) Brexiteers to that is that such policies take away control from British institutions and lets the European Court tell the British what to do. Here the face-saving devices come into play in that new institutions will be invented to 'consult' about these things, except of course the back channel will be some recourse somewhere along the line to EU or International Treaty law with some binding arbitration mechanism.

A last minute deal will be done and neatly everybody will say they are happy. That's the new normal.