Monday 13 January 2020

Why EDF's argument that they cut costs with early start to Sizewell C is nonsense

As reported in 'The Times' EDF is now pressing the Government for an early decision to fund Sizewell C nuclear power plant through what is effectively a blank cheque financial model. EDF say they want to start building Sizewell C in 2022 because they will save money through transferring staff from building Hinkley C.

To me this sounds a very dubious argument for the simple reason that building another two units of their 'Euorpean Pessurised Reactor' (EPR) at the same time as Hinkley will put even greater pressure on staff resources - which  are very scarce in the highly specialised nuclear industry - and lead to increased problems and costs, not savings. The argument posed by EDF annoys me especially as I have been (for some time) researching a book for Routledge about the factors that have led to the nuclear power construction cost overruns, and  big factor appears to be precisely the fact that there is just not enough specialised nuclear staff in the West to build nuclear power plant. So this argument about 'transferring' staff seems to me to be especially tendentious.

EDF claims they are going to 'transfer staff'. Planning to transfer staff could produce even bigger delays as construction fell behind schedule, the staff couldn’t be released on time  and building at Sizewell has to be halted leading to  even greater costs as other staff sit around doing very little.

Really the whole argument seems to me to be a clever way of distracting from the obvious point that they cannot build more than two units at once (indeed, cannot even do that on time). To say that there is some sort of cost-saving in this seems bizarre. But then, in reality, we shall find that the real start of construction at Sizewell C will be pushed back and back.

But EDF have an big incentive to pre-commit the UK Government to an early start for Sizewell C (which may in practice be no more than some light work in advance of serious construction) because of three possibilities.

The first is that bad news continues to come about the longer and longer delays with building EPR reactors in France and Finland. The second is that bad news could soon be also coming concerning more delays with Hinkley C itself. The third is that EDF are in big financial trouble having to fund Hinkley C on their own balance sheet while suffering losses with their construction at Flamanville and would be given considerable succour with an open-ended committment to pour money into the company for another twin power plant. (See my earlier blog post on the massive losses EDF are suffering with Flamanville). The quicker they can get a decision from the UK Government then the less chance that the Government will be put off by continuing bad news from Flamanville and Hinkley C itself.

EDF have been consistently arguing for arrangements that they say reduce costs, while the outome is that costs increase. This is most likely to be the case with the arrangements that they have promoted to build Sizewell C. They have claimed that it will be cheaper because using Government money is chreaper. But the reality is that the Government will be committed to paying for any cost overruns of the project - so how is this project going to be built cheaper when the company doing it has no contractual incentive to keep costs down?

The reality is that every nuclear power project being built in the west over this century is costing at least double (probably even more than that eventually) than they were supposed to cost in the first place. The cost of building Sizewell C under the proposed 'Regulated Asset Base' is likel;y to be much higher for the energy consumer compared to even Hinkley C - even if it is cheaper for EDF! And EDF are rushing the public into accepting the inevitable high public costs before there is further mouning bad news from the construction of their power plant at Flamanville and Hinkley C.


Saturday 4 January 2020

Why the UK Government may be encouraging greenwash in its announcement about 'hydrogen ready' boilers


The Government's announcement that from 2025 gas boilers will have to be 'hydrogen ready' could presage the start of one of the greatest pieces of greenwash that have been committed in the UK. It seems likely to result in carbon emissions being substantially increased compared to the present use of natural gas in boilers to heat homes.

The oil and gas industry is promoting so-called 'blue hydrogen', that is hydrogen produced by 'reforming' natural gas, and capturing the carbon dioxide that is produced. Yet currently most hydrogen is produced by reforming natural gas and not capturing carbon dioxide, a process that will dramatically increase carbon dioxide emissions if hydrogen is used to heat homes. The efficiency of the gas reformation process is only around 65 per cent meaning that much more carbon dioxide is generated to produce the hydrogen as fuel compared to simply burning the natural gas. Any claims that the process will be done using carbon capture and storage, beyond that is a few demonstration projects supported by public grants, should be taken with a wagon load of salt.

But the sad thing is that even if 'green' hydrogen for heating homes was to be generated by renewable energy (through electrolysis of water) it would still be a grossly inefficient way of using that renewable energy. Renewable energy is normally distributed through the electricity system where it can power heat pumps in homes (either individually or through district heating systems) to much much greater effect. The heat pumps use electricity much more efficiently compared to any hydrogen boilers, no matter how the hydrogen is produced. Indeed a heat pump may increase the efficiency of the use of renewable energy by approaching fourfold compared to using 'green hydrogen' in a boiler.

Not only does the heat pump multiply the heat from the electircity by around threefold (by using heat in the surrounding environemnt) but it avoids losing energy through electrolysis,

So, in terms of reducing carbon emissions we will need FOUR times the amout of renewable energy to produce the same heating effect in buildings if we turn it into hydrogen  - compared to using the renewable energy delivered through the electricity system and used in heat pumps.

So the Government should be looking at ways to ensure heat pumps are used as a rule in new buildings and giving incentives to have existing buildings retrofitted with heat pumps. This is as opposed to being hijacked by the oil and gas lobby to pass off business as usual under a greenwashed cover story.


 https://www.carboncommentary.com/blog/2017/7/5/hydrogen-made-by-the-electrolysis-of-water-is-now-cost-competitive-and-gives-us-another-building-block-for-the-low-carbon-economy




https://help.leonardo-energy.org/hc/en-us/articles/203047881-How-efficient-is-a-heat-pump-