Boris Johnson and his Government may be riding high in the opinion polls but two apparent decisions of 'strength' may, in retrospect, look like mad acts of self-destruction. As a result of prorogation and now, in today's news, a decision to effectively expel Tory MPs who back anti-no deal legislation, Johnson has at two strokes united the Opposition and formally divided his own Party. At practically any other time this would have been regarded as craziness, but in the unreality of Brexit politics to some at least this passes muster as 'strength and detemination'. With the benefit of hindsight this might look like the sheer madness people would have always thought such actions to be.
The Government, is being driven, (we're not sure exactly by whom - Boris Johnson or Dominc Cummings?) with their eyes mostly fixed on the rear view mirror trying to avoid being run over by the Brexit Party but not taking too much notice about what is on the road ahead. The cabinet membership meanwhile is (s)trapped in the back, incredulous at what they see, but unable to move or say much.
Of course we don't know at this point what will happen, with Harold Wilson's must quoted maxim 'a week is a long time in politics' looking extremely relevant today. Various people have drawn up flow diagrams to try to preduct at least the plausible outcomes; yet there are so many variables with unknown qunatities and interactions that in fact the outcomes could literally be 'off the wall'; certainly off the diagrams.
But in considering outcomes, we should bear in mind the base conditions and the rules of the game. It has been assumed up to now, that a pre-Brexit election was a big possibility with October 14th often beoing mentioned. This of course depends on the Labour Party playing along asnd agreeing to an election when Boris Johnson wants. But this isn't happening. In an unintended consequence of the Fixed Term Parliament Act (FTPA), Governments in general, and especially this Government, have lost control over the ability to call an election.
Johnson will need the support of Labour to get the two-thirds majority he needs to call a pre-'no deal Brexit' election, but Labour are now saying they won't sanction this unless there is not only a Brexit extension but also an agreement to hold another referendum. If they stick to this, Johnson will find it very difficult to call an election. He could order his MPs to con-confidence his own Government, but even in this weird scenatio he would have to wait 14 days before an election could be called. This would run the risk of a temporary PM being appointed by the Opposition, a prospect made more likely by the fact that quite a few Tory MPs will be efectively exp[elled from the Conservative Party! In fact there won't even be 14 days in this prorogued Parlimentary session, and the no-confidence motion will fall because Parliament has been prorogued - so, Johnson would have to un-prorogue Parliament to trigger this procedure any time soon (???!).
Now Labour in (who in what has not been noticed so far) an act of prgmatism are saying that they now regard calling another referendum as the first option rather than election (and want an extension for that purpose). Many otherwise referendum-sceptical Labour MPs will be impressed by the argument that going for another referendum is a better bet to keeping their seats than calling an election now when some believe that Johnson will end the Brexit impasse in a 'clean' manner.
For Corbyn this is becoming much more a 'heads I win tails you lose' position. If, by his new strategy, the Government are forced to go for a 'no-deal' and there is an election after October 31st we are in new electioneeting territory. Here the Government has to own the consequences, including awakening the electorate to the fact that the problem of negotiating a relationship ith the EU is still there and which the Government currently appears to have no idea how to manage.
But if the Government is forced somehow to accept, through legislation, an extension to Brexit, it will begin to look a lot weaker, especially if the Opposition insists that there is another referendum.
Now I'm probably getting ahead of myself, because there are lots of ifs, buts, and chaos on the road to such outcomes....and lots of chaos to come in which the lawyers may prove to be as important as the politicians. But it is ironic that in the last week the Italians, often scoffed at as having perpetual government chaos, have formed, for the moment a stable Government, whilst allegedly stable Britain is plunging into worse governmental chaos than ever seems to occur in Italy.
fall in cost of fuel cells https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/fact-month-april-2018-fuel-cell-cost-decreased-60-2006
big fall in cost of electrolysers predicted https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-21/cost-of-hydrogen-from-renewables-to-plummet-next-decade-bnef?utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/10/f19/ftco_early_mkts_fc_backup_power_fact_sheet.pdf
methane in fuel cells https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181029130939.htm
https://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2018/06/new-fuel-cell-off-grid-power-solution-could-compete-on-price-with-diesel.html
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/67408.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloom_Energy_Server#Usage
https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/14/20804257/zeroavia-hydrogen-airplane-electric-flight
https://orsted.com/en/Media/Newsroom/News/2019/08/Orsted-and-partners-secure-government-funding-for-hydrogen-project
http://www.hydrogenfuelnews.com/construction-starts-on-hydrogen-electrolysis-plant-in-germany/8537764/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/edgarsten/2019/09/09/fuel-cells-find-their-place-on-factory-floors/#709ae8855ee9
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