Friday 15 March 2019

How Wednesday's vote on Brexit postponement mirrors the Tories' catastrophic split in 1846

The split in the Conservative Party on Wednesday night when the majority of Tory MPs voted against the Government's proposals to delay Brexit is eerily similar to the catastrophic split the Tory Party suffered in 1846 as PM Robert Peel oversaw the repeal of the the Corn Laws. In 1846 the Tory party split irrevocably into two factions, one of which, the 'Peelites' later merged with the Whigs and Radicals to form the Liberal Party. The Tories were out of office for most of the next 30 years.

On Wednesday Mrs May, reflecting an earlier Commons vote to do all things possible to avoid  'no-deal' Brexit, proposed a motion saying that the Government would ask for Article 50 to be suspended.  - Not jut until the end of June, but potentially  for a long period if the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) was not approved by the House of Commons by March 20th. The motion was amazing in the sense that it was opposed by 60 per cent of the Tory MPs, and gained a majority (a good one at that) by dint of support from the Opposition. In 1846 Peel got his repeal of the Corn laws passed, but only after the measure was opposed by two-thirds of Tory MPs and passed with the help of the Opposition.
Of course May has an advantage over Peel in the sense that she has some levers to force the DUP and the hard line Brexiteers into line. With the DUP it is a question of squeezing their supporters with the threat of a no-deal tariff regime that allows tariff free access to goods from the Republic while having tariffs on good going south, something that would hit DUP supporting farmers where it hurts. That's the stick. The carrot is an offer of money to the DUP.
How much is a backstop worth? Or how much will the DUP have to be paid so that they will accept some face-saving gesture to get them to vote for the WA? And then the hardline Brexiteers are threatened with a scenario that a long Brexit delay could ultimately lead to a soft-deal Brexit or even a referendum and no Brexit at all.
Yes, Mrs May could go down as a modern version of Peel who ended up irrevocably splitting the Tories. Alternatively she could end up victorious and getting her WA passed and being hailed as a political magician....well for three weeks at least, before it sinks in that in terms of negotiating a final relationship with the EU, that was the easy bit!
On the other hand, if her Withdrawal Agreement is not approved..............

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