Renewable energy likely to soar upwards in 2020 as proportion of UK electricity consumption

Now, I must start by saying that I'd far far prefer renewable energy increases NOT to occur if it magically prevented further deaths in this dreadful epidemic. However simple analysis of trends does imply that renewable energy is likely, ceteris paribus, to increase as a proportion of UK electricity consumption from around 37% in 2019 to around 43% in 2020.

Why? Well a big factor here is that electricity consumption seems to be running around 10 per cent less than one would expect this time of year. If this only translates to around 5% over the whole of 2020, then, added to continued (on trend) declines in UK electricity consumption, and the effects of recent additions to renewable energy generation, then this will produce quite a big increase in the proportion of UK electricity from renewables during the year.

Of course even if there was no renewable energy installed this year (although I'm assuming about 20% of planned installations occur this year) we would still see an increase this year because the installations registered last year will not have been operating for the whole of 2019, whilst they will be available for operation the whole of 2020. (I'm also assuming that maintenance of existing electricity infrastructure is counted as an essential activity). So that adds 2-3 per cent onto the RE proportion on its own.

Electricity consumption has been declining for several years now of course, and declines in overall electricity consumption will increase the poportion supplied by renewable energy simply because the bulk of renewable energy will continue to generate whilst it will be fossil fuels that will be usually constrained because of declining consumption.

My assumptions are to a degree weather-dependent - eg they will go awry to the extent that this year isn't as windy as last year, and to a lesser extent if it isn't very sunny.

https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/covid-19-drives-down-demand-as-lockdown-affects-usage-patterns