What started off as looking like a whakky idea - allowing a Scottish independence referendum on the proviso that all people who would be eligible for Scottish passports - has now become almost mainstream in England (at least in right wing political circles). Those promoting the idea are opposed to Scottish independence, expecting such a proposition to deliver a 'no' vote in any referendum outcome. But these 'give the vote to Scottish expats' should be careful of what they wish for.
Because it might actually backfire and produce more votes for independence than votes against.
Sure, the opinion polls suggest, now, that there would be a healthy majority for a 'no' vote among the English residing expat Scots, but that's before the campaign starts, and certainly before the potential 'no' voters are informed of the benefits of obtaining an extra (Scottish) nationality.
These benefits are likely to be substantial given that Scotland is very likely (I would say almost certain) to quickly become a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) and therefore entitle Scottish citizens to the freedom of movement benefits that result from this. Travellers to the EU from the UK after the end of the year may well experience some irksome changes meaning people having to pay to take out health insurance cover, experiencing much greater difficulty in taking pets to the EU, re-imposition of mobile phone roaming charges and of course facing visa restrictions on the amount of time they can spend abroad.
We don't know as yet what the arrangements may be, but what I can argue with some logical argument in support is that the ideal relationship that Scotland would have with the EU after independence is not full membership of the EU, but membership of the EEA. This would allow Scotland, as is the case of Norway who is a member of the EEA but not the EU, access to the European Single Market and all of its benefits. For sure, this would include access to health cover as it is for Brits at the moment easy movement for pets, no mobile phone roaming charges and no restrictions on access to EU countries. Scotland would be also able to negotiate a close trade agreement with the rest of the UK, something it would need but would not be able to negotiate separately to the EU if it was a full EU member.
Nobody has factored in the effect on ex-pat Scots when they realise they would get these benefits. Many of these potential referendum votes probably have no deep feelings about independence one way or another, but they may well be very keen on obtaining the useful benefits to themselves that might flow from independence. They might well suddenly warm to the blandishments of Nicolar Sturgean et al. In deed, in political science a famous theory propounded by Mancur Olson (about which political scientists have been arguing ever since) highlighted the crucial positive impact on recruitment to pressure groups of 'selective incentives'. Of course, as critics have pointed out, support for causes is very important, but so are perceived individual benefits.
A surprisingly large number of people could end up voting for the benefits given that everybody who has at least one grandparent born in Scotland would be eligible for Scottish citizenship. You might suddenly see a lot of people 'rediscovering' their Scottish identities for the sake of claiming holiday health insurance and fee mobile phone calls, even though some of them may never have actually set foot in Scotland.
Now, that might be upside. The downside however is that, in the event of a narrow 'no' vote result if the number of expat Scots voting in a referendum exceeds the margin of a 'no' victory then the Scottish nationalists will say that the vote has been rigged. The referendum will be robbed of its legitimacy. Once that happened the door is opened to all sorts of odious extremists who are willing to put other people's lives in danger in terrorist attacks in the name of 'nationalism'. At best there will be a movement of civil resistance and civil disturbance in opposition to what will be framed as a rigged result. Things could get quite difficult.
Maybe some of the protagonists of this 'give expat Scots a vote' strategy are being a bit tongue in cheek, and will become a bit more straight-faced if and when Scottish enthusiasm for another vote increases.
I hope so, because the consequences of such a crazy idea will almost certainly make these people regret coming up with the idea in the first place.
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