As the UK faces the worst political crisis since WW2, with the political and economic dangers of a no-deal Brexit, the last thing pro-EU parties need to do is to actively split the forces trying to combat a no-deal. Yet, I fear, if a Lib-Dem-Green Alliance takes shape which treats Labour as a more or less equal electoral foe compared to the Conservative and Brexit Parties, it may ensure a Boris Johnson victory. As far as the Green Party is concerned I am very concerned that they are moving towards a position of preferring the Lib Dems to Labour.
If it does become the case that Greens back the Lib Dems ahead of Labour in seats where Labour are the leading contenders with the Tories then I suspect that many Green Party members will wonder why they joined the Green Party in the first place. Even a deal involving Greens stepping aside to back the Lib Dems in contests with Labour could have disastrous impacts on the Green Party.
Now I want to make it clear that 'Remain' is my first option. However, simply having a general alliance between avowed Remain parties at the coming General Election may well play into the hands of what could well turn out to be a soft electoral alliance between Brexit Party supporters and Conservative candidates committed to tolerating 'no-deal'.
There was an effective soft alliance at the 2015 election between many UKIP sympathisers and the Conservatives; indeed it was a successful strategy so that where the Conservatives (committed to holding a referendum). were in close contention with Labour, including many northern seats, UKIP sympathisers often voted tactically for the Conservatives. Cameron won an overall majority. The danger of the current situation is that this general pattern could be repeated (with the Brexit Party replacing UKIP of course), this time in support for 'no deal'.
Ironically, as much as Jo Swinson may declare her dislike of Corbyn, the main chance of getting another referendum is to get a (almost certainly minority) Government led by Corbyn to organise a three way referendum. This would be about whatever 'deal' he cooked up with the EU, remaining or no-deal. It is fairly transparent nonsense for Lib-Dems to claim that they will refuse to support a minority Corbyn Government (in confidence votes) so long it is following such a path. No, the Labour Party is not going to ditch Corbyn as leader in the week following a General Election at which the Conservatives have lost their majority. It strains credulity to think that the Lib Dems are going to (or even be allowed to) call another election in short notice (it could be very bad news if they did). Given that the Lib Dems cannot do a deal with Bojo, that doesn't leave many other options.
The Lib Dems were willing to be a full coalition partner in a five year austerity Cameron Government, tolerating xenophobic immigration initatives, Hinkley C, shale gas and so on, but are they seriously saying they won't even back a minority Corbyn Government on a short term basis? If they won't back Corbyn what would they do? Have another General Eection quickly so that Bojo could drive us into a no-deal Brexit? And the Green Party is going to be at their side when this happens?
Having a pure Remain Alliance may work well in a place like Brecon where the Lib Dems are the most credible alternative to a 'no-deal is tolerable' Conservative, but it would be disastrous in a place like Peterborough where the choice was between a 'no-deal' candidate and Labour. There was, in Peterborough, a wise decision not to have a pure-Remain alliance, but instead, to have an implicit soft tactical voting alliance to support the Labour candidate. That's the pattern we need. If, on the other hand Greens agree to back Lib Dems in battles where lib Dems and Labour are the leading contenders then whatever benefits the Greens get in return, strategically the Greens will then be dismissed as a an adjunct of the Lib Dems, and will lose left wing support.
If as seems very likely, there is a pattern of tactical voting between the Brexit Party and the Conservatives, then there needs to be an equivalent pattern of tactical voting between the anti-no-deal parties. Indeed, there ought to be one anyway, regardless of what Brexit Party voters do or not do. We desperately need to stop a no-deal? Comprendi? That's what I call a Progressive Alliance.
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