Why we may be heading for a Tory 'no deal' General Election

And how the only chance of stopping a Tory 'no dealer' winning that election is for Labour to declare its full, unqualified, support for another referendum on UK EU membership

Barring some miracle and Mrs May manages to stay in office as PM until much later in the year it looks almost certain that the next Tory leader will be pledged, in effect, to 'achieve' a 'no-deal' Brexit at the end of October this year.

There will be a Leadership election in which it is highly likely the winning candidate will promise to attempt to 'renegotiate' the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement to remove the backstop ( a la the 'Brady' plan), and failing that, to leave the EU as early as possible. This will probably mean the end of October. Given that the EU will not abandon the firm wishes of the Irish Republic to avoid a hard border, and assuming that the Tories will reject having separate trading and customs arrangements for Northern Ireland, then this leaves 'no deal' as the only option acceptable to a likely future Tory Leader.

The Tory grassroots, (who make the final choice between two candidates selected by the MPs) are almost certain to back a 'no deal' candidate, assuming at least one of the two candidates put to them is that way inclined! The polarisation at the Euro elections, leaving the Tories well behind the Brexit Party will give little succour to any Tory looking for a compromise Brexit.

In fact the Tory Govt is in a perilous Parliamentary position. It has just a nominal majority of 4 even with the DUP's continued support. That may not  survive the end of October when the Commons could well vote against a No deal (even to revoke Article 50), and leave the Government without any majority at all, - either that or the country would tumble into a chaotic exit with the Government taking the blame. Indeed that is what Corbyn would prefer to see in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit. Far better, from the Tory Leader's point of view, is to call an election (an offer Labour couldn't refuse) before the end of October. It would be an election, effectively about a 'no deal' Brexit. The Tories, (with most Remainer Tory MPs being cowed into submission) would have a coherent message.

But this would be perilous for Labour, because, if the more pro-EU vote splintered among Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, PC, ChangeUK and Labour, a right wing Tory Govt could be given a mandate for 5 years. By promising to leave at the end of October without any strings, the Tories could recapture most of the votes lost to the Brexit Party in the EU elections. Meanwhile if Labour continued with its ambivalent position it could lose - big time.

The only way that Labour could possibly win such an election would be to marshall the pro-EU vote by putting itself forward as the only Party able to deliver another referendum on the EU. Any other election stance - eg a continuation of the the present ambivalence - would play into the hands of a united pro-Brext front which would now be consolidated behind the Tories.

Corbyn has no other choice but to make an EU referendum the unequivocal Labour pledge under this scenario.