Green surge in Bavaria puts AfD in the shade

The Green Party has surged in the polls to 19%, potentially depriving the CSU of their state Parliamentary majority. They are putting the AfD in the shade who are polling a mere 10 per cent in the latest survey. The CSU is polling on 34 per cent. The state elections in Bavaria occur on Sunday 14th October. The Greens' standing in second place in the polls put them in a prime position to enter a coalition, either with the CSU themselves, or a multi-party coalition which excludes both the CSU and the AfD.

To Brits of course, who live in a parallel reality where the far right sweeps all before them and the EU is perpetually about to split up, this is not news. It hasn't been reported. We heard earlier in the year (in the British press) about how Horst Seehofer, the Federal Interior Minister, had threatened to close the Bavarian border in a policy duel with Angela Merkel in a drive to stem the rise of the AfD. But now we hear absolutely nothing about the rise of the Greens in the polls. In fact the Greens have been leading the opinion polls in Bavaria for the last 3 months, yet still this fact is routinely airbrushed from the news.

Take the Daily Express which reports on how the CSU is about to lose its majority in the state Parlaiment but which fails to mention the Greens but does mention the CSU's fear of losing ground to the AfD. To the extent that the CSU has 'toughened' its anti-immigrant rhetoric, a bigger trend in Bavaria recently has been that the CSU appears to have lost votes to the Greens (Die Grunen).

Of course, nationally, the AfD has gained ground in the last year, but reality again is much more complex than the British want to hear. In fact, far from being the unrivalled second place party that you hear in the press, it is fighting with both the SPD and the Greens for second place, these three parties polling in the 15-20 per cent range.

Green gains in Bavaria in particular are likely to positively enhance the drive for renewable energy and energy conservation of course. In particular the Greens may be able to water down the strict rules on building windfarms which are in place in Bavaria. This has meant that there are few windfarms in Bavaria compared to the rest of Germany.



https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1029745/Bavaria-election-2018-polls-who-will-win-Bavaria-election-Angela-Merkel-germany


https://www.zdf.de/politik/politbarometer/csu-bleibt-im-stimmungstief-gruene-legen-weiter-zu-100.html

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm